Trader Mike
September 18, 2008 Recap: Almost Like Yesterday Never Happened
These last few days are some of the wildest I’ve ever seen. Right up there with post 9/11 trading and some of the upside action in the 200 bubble. As Jeff Macke attested to tonight on Fast Money it’s just treacherous out there. Even if you chose (guessed?) the right side (long or short) for the day (hour?) you’re likely to get stopped out by some violent move caused by some rumor or headline. Here’s a shot of the Dow over the last two sessions (each bar is 30 minutes) which show the 600 point range with some big, quick bursts which coincided with events on CNBC.
The VIX spiked even higher today and hit 42.16 before reversing and good old T2108 has bounced back over that key 20 level. I think the indices set all-time volume records today but I’m not sure. Does anybody know a site that provides such data? Record or not, the volume was extreme and is exactly what you want to see when you’re looking for a capitulative bottom. I just wonder what options expiration will bring us tomorrow.
Like the Dow, the Nasdaq and S&P regained most of what they lost yesterday. Both indices are perched just below a couple of lines of resistance.
The Russell bested the 4 and 5% moves by the indices above by gaining almost 7%. That puts it back above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. It also broke its September downtrend today. I’ve been hearing a lot of talk about how tech is gonna lead the way up but it seems that small caps are still the place to be.
Trend TableSome upgrades for the Russell today..
Trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Russell 2000 Long-Term Down Down Lat(+) Intermediate Down Down Lat(+) Short-term Down Down Up(+)(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
Post from: Trader Mike's Blog
September 18, 2008 Recap: Almost Like Yesterday Never Happened
No tag for this post.Watchlist for September 18, 2008
The futures are up, although well off their pre-market highs, after some more PPT action this morning. Let’s see if the bulls can follow through on this early strength…
On Today’s Calendar:
- 10:00 — Leading Indicators
- 10:00 — Philadelphia Fed
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: APOG -15.6%, PLD -12.8% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank and downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC)… Select airlines showing weakness with crude higher: UAUA -9.4% , AMR -7.5% , LCC -6.3% , CAL -5.6% , DAL -4.3%… Other news: SRDX -23.3% (Merck discontinues license and research collaboration agreement with SurModics), CPST -20.0% (announces a ~21.48 mln share common stock offering), MS -6.9% (continued reports regarding a potential merger with WB; CNBC reported that co is beginning official merger negotiations with WB), GS -6.1% (showing continued weakness from yesterday’s 10%+ decline), VRTX -4.0% (announces pricing of its public offering of common stock of 7.5 mln shares at $25.50 per share)… Analyst comments: KSS -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup).
Gapping Up
Select financial related stocks rebounding: UBS +17.9%, AIG +13.2% (S&P reports most AIG ratings’ CreditWatch status revised to developing; short-term ratings raised), WM +11.9% (Wells Fargo, Citi have expressed preliminary interest, according to sources - WSJ), LYG +11.5% (buys HBOS in GBP12.2B all-share deal - DJ), RBS +9.9%, AXA +7.3%, MBI +7.1%, DB +6.8%, ING +4.2%, BCS +4.0%, C +2.5%, WB +2.0% (MS considers merger with WB - NY Times)… Select metals/mining names showing continued strength as the dollar weakens and gold rises further: GFI +12.4%, SLV +7.1%, NG +6.8%, AAUK +6.5%, HMY +5.1%, MT +4.4%, GOLD +4.3%, RTP +2.4%, NEM +1.8%, BHP +1.6%, GLD +1.1%… Select oil/gas names showing strength with crude higher: STO +7.4%, RDS.A +2.7%, TOT +2.1%, BP +1.9%, XOM +1.4%… Select China names trading higher following rebound in overseas trading: CHU +11.1%, CN +7.1%, ACH +3.3%… Other news: CEG +5.0% (EDF Considers Taking Over U.S. Joint Venture Partner - WSJ)… Analyst comments: CLR +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).
Disclaimer & How I use this list
Interested in the alerts below? You can get a 7 day free-trial of the full-blown, customizable Trade-Ideas Pro service. Note: These alerts refresh/update automatically every 30 secondsPost from: Trader Mike's Blog
Watchlist for September 18, 2008
No tag for this post.Is Your Money Market Fund Still Safely Pegged to $1.00?
There are a lot of good articles around about money market funds possibly losing their peg to 1.00 dollar mark. Fellow blogger Rob from Qunatifiable Edges wrote about how his IRA is frozen due to his cash being affected by the 3% drop in the Reserve Primary Fund. One of the New York Times’ articles, ‘Money Market Fund Says Customers Could Lose Money‘, explains why Rob’s account is frozen:
The fund’s financial records also show that more than half of its portfolio on May 31 consisted of asset-backed commercial paper and notes from a host of issuers besides Lehman, few of them names likely to be familiar to the financial markets.
If these arcane investments had to be sold or cashed out quickly to meet redemptions, it is unclear what prices they would fetch or whether the issuers would be able to return the fund’s money promptly, said Keith Long, of Otter Creek Management, a hedge fund based in Palm Beach, Fla.
The Primary Fund reported that, until further notice, it would delay paying redemptions to customers for up to seven days, as permitted under mutual fund law. That delay will not apply to debit card transactions, automated clearinghouse transactions or checks written against the assets of the Primary Fund, provided that the transactions do not exceed $10,000 from single or affiliated investors.
That article also has an interesting part about how often funds “break the buck” and why they typically don’t do so:
This is only the second time in history that a money market fund has “broken the buck” — that is, reported a share’s value was less than a dollar.
This year alone, big banks and fund management companies have pledged more than $10 billion to rescue affiliated money funds that were caught holding mortgage market securities that were deteriorating rapidly in value. As a result, consumers have felt confident in the safety of money funds, and have been moving assets into such funds as markets have grown more turbulent.
The other NY Times article, ‘Money Market Funds Enter a World of Risk‘ delves into the details of different types money market funds and which ones are truly safe:
And that’s why, in this market, financial advisers agreed on Wednesday, consumers need to become their own chief investment officers, even when it comes to something as simple as finding a place to put their cash.
“One by one, all of my safe havens aren’t so safe anymore, and that’s a bad thing,” said Matthew Tuttle, a certified financial planner and president of Tuttle Wealth Management in Stamford, Conn.
“It used to be O.K. to have money in a CD, but now you have to worry, ‘Is my bank going to go under?’ ” he added. “You used to be able to buy a guaranteed annuity from an insurance company, but now you have to worry, ‘Is my insurance company going to go under?’ Or, you can have auction-rate preferred securities, but now there is no market.”
Before you pull your cash out of your money market fund, you need to understand what you own. There is a big difference between money market mutual funds and the money market deposit accounts at a bank (and banks sometimes sell both).
Folks would be wise to check the details of their money market funds…
Post from: Trader Mike's Blog
Is Your Money Market Fund Still Safely Pegged to $1.00?
Tags: Money Market FundsSeptember 17, 2008 Recap: T2108 is Finally Sub-20
The bulls had another disastrous day today. The indices were all down between 4 to 5% and the only industry indices in the green were gold and disk drives(thanks to SanDisk’s buyout offer). Broker Dealers nad airlines led the way down today with more than 10% losses. Although volume decreased a little from yesterday it was still very high. One might expect volume to have increased today but I think part of the reason for the slight decline is the way the day played out. A good chunk of the selling came in the last 30 minutes of the day after a failed afternoon rally. About the only good thing (for the bulls) I can say about today is that T2108 has finally breached 20.
Here’s the VIX, which is approaching the levels it hit as the market bottomed in August 2007 and this January…
The S&P and Nasdaq charts look very similar. They both closed under their July intraday lows.
The Russell is giving in to the selling pressure and is part of the reason why T2108 is finally below 20.
Trend TableEverything’s down again
Trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Russell 2000 Long-Term Down Down Down(-) Intermediate Down Down Down(-) Short-term Down Down Down(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
Post from: Trader Mike's Blog
September 17, 2008 Recap: T2108 is Finally Sub-20
No tag for this post.Watchlist for September 17, 2008
We’ve got another gap down opening on our hands as the indices give back a lot of yesterday’s late day gains. I just hope the market doesn’t get jerked around by rumors & headlines like it did yesterday.
On Today’s Calendar:
- 10:35 — Crude Inventories
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VSE -23.4% (also announces that it has commenced a 20 mln share common stock offering; downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), NT -17.0%, MS -14.5%, POL -9.1%… Select financial stocks showing continued weakness: AIG -43.2% (Fed to give AIG $85 bln loan and take 80% stake), IRE -11.2%, RBS -6.8%, KEY -6.8%, FITB -5.5%, GS -5.5%, MER -5.3%, WB -4.9%, C -3.2%, BAC -2.9%, CIT -2.6%, HBC -2.3%, JPM -2.2%… Select China names trading lower after the Shanghai Composite ended -2.9% to a new 22-month closing low and the Hang Seng closed -3.6%: ACH -9.3%, PTR -8.3%, CEO -7.9%, CHA -7.2%, ZNH -5.9%, SNP -5.8%… Other news: COIN -6.4% (announces redemption of Class A Warrants), NOK -3.1% (still checking), GILD -2.7% (receives complete response letter from U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Aztreonam Lysine for Inhalation, an investigational treatment for cystic Fibrosis)… Analyst comments: ZION -2.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), CME -2.4% (downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), BBT -2.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup).
Gapping Up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ADBE +3.6%, DRI +1.5%… M&A news: SNDK +51.3% (receives $26 bid from Samsung; co’s unanimously rejects Samsung’s unsolicited proposal)… Select European financials showing strength: LYG +9.7% (Lloyds TSB and HBOS in merger talks: Source - Reuters), BCS +5.4% (reaches $1.75 bln deal for a Lehman unit - NY Times), AXA +3.3%… Other news: XIN +18.1% (still checking), ABK +8.0% (confirms limited direct exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings and its subsidiaries), HOKU +7.4% (Tianwei commits to additional $227 mln of polysilicon from Hoku; also upgraded to Buy at Broadpoint), MU +5.0% (up in sympathy with SNDK), SOL +2.8% (still checking)… Analyst comments: ESLR +5.6% (upgraded to Hold at Citigroup), ACLS +5.3% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), NLY +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), AA +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil).
Disclaimer & How I use this list
Interested in the alerts below? You can get a 7 day free-trial of the full-blown, customizable Trade-Ideas Pro service. Note: These alerts refresh/update automatically every 30 secondsPost from: Trader Mike's Blog
Watchlist for September 17, 2008
No tag for this post.September 16, 2008 Recap: Reversal Day on Extreme Volume
This had to be one of the wildest sessions I’ve seen in a very long time. We had some many sharp moves & reversal based on newsflashes — some real and some not so much. The Brady Bunchesque layout of talking heads on CNBC didn’t help much either. If you didn’t see it, they had eight talking heads on in little boxes all chattering about AIG, LEH, the Fed, etc. It made for very treacherous trading, especially in AIG, because they were just spreading rumors all day long. It reminded me of why I don’t trade stocks with rumors swirling around them. But when all was said and done we got what appears to be a pretty good reversal day.
Today’s action didn’t meet the requirements for a key reversal day because yesterday’s highs weren’t surpassed. However, we did have extreme volume and a gap down at the open and the indices made bullish engulfing patterns today. (Note that engulfing patterns only look at the opens & closes, not the highs & lows.) That clearly shows that sellers over-reached. Like I said this morning about all the folks looking to initiate shorts — they stuck their faces right into a buzzsaw. The smart & early bears aren’t done yet though. Many of them were probably covering their positions today and looking to reload higher. The September trendlines, which are still intact, are the first place I’d look for selling to resume. So now it’s all about follow-through.
This action on the Nasdaq is exactly what I like to see on a double-bottom attempt. I want the previous low to be taken out. That should trigger any stops people have set under that first low and thereby shake out the last of the sellers.
We had very similar action on the S&P. (Because of those staggered NYSE opens you’ll have to look at the SPY chart to see the bullish engulfing.)
The Russell is really determined to cling to its 50 and 200-day moving averages.
Trend TableMinor upgrades to the Russell 2000…
Trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Russell 2000 Long-Term Down Down Lat(+) Intermediate Down Down Lat(+) Short-term Down Down Down(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
Post from: Trader Mike's Blog
September 16, 2008 Recap: Reversal Day on Extreme Volume
No tag for this post.Watchlist for September 16, 2008
I was planning to take the day off as I always do for Fed decision days but I’m calling an audible today. There are just too many movers out there today that *should be* immune from what the Fed decides to do with interest rates at 2:15. I’m still most interested in the groups that have just started to crack — some financials, retail and real estate.
(Edit at 10:33 — I just closed a gap fade trade on the SPY. It filled (retraced) about 80% of the gap. I’m taking my 0.8R of profit and taking the rest of the day off.)
On another note, like Barry, my site also had a surge in traffic yesterday. Visits were about 50% higher than the previous Monday. A large part of that were people searching for “Inverse ETFs“. Those searchers continue to stream in today. For folks who aren’t short-term traders that play seems a bit too obvious to be profitable right now. I fear that a lot of folks are sticking their faces into a buzzsaw.
On Today’s Calendar:
- 2:15 — FOMC Policy Statement
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RBCN -17.7%, LWSN -8.9%, OI -8.5%, GS -7.6%, BBY -6.2%… Select financial-related news showing continued weakness: AIG -32.1% (ratings lowered and kept on CreditWatch Negative at S&P), UBS -13.6%, MS -13.0% (credit default swaps rise 275 bps to 750 bps, according to Phoenix Partners - Reuters), RBS -12.0%, WM -10.0% (downgraded to ‘BB-/B’ (junk status) from ‘BBB-/A-3′; Outlook Negative at S&P), RDN -8.2%, WB -6.9%, NCC -6.5%, SCA -6.3%, ABK -5.4%, ING -5.2%, SNV -4.5% (Fitch downgrades Synovus Financial Corp’s ratings; outlook negative), BAC -2.4%, JPM -1.6%… Select oil/gas names showing weakness with crude lower: STO -3.6%, RDS.A -3.3%, BP -1.8%, TOT -1.6%, E -1.3%… Select solar names trading lower: ESLR -13.2%, JASO -6.1%, CSIQ -5.6%, FSLR -3.0%, LDK -1.9%, SPWR -1.8%… Select tech names trading lower following cautious comments from DELL: DELL -8.3% (sees further softening in global information technology demand), NOVL -5.2%, EMC -5.0%, YHOO -3.2%, INTC -2.4%, MSFT -2.3%, GOOG -2.1%, SYMC -1.8%… Other news: TRGT -40.9% (the co and AstraZeneca announce top-line results from Phase 2b Study of AZD3480 in Alzheimer’s disease were inconclusive), SPNC -6.1% (VIVA has elected to temporarily suspend enrollment in the study after being contacted by the FDA about a potential safety concern), NOK -2.6% and INTC -2.4% (still checking for anything specific)… Analyst comments: WPI -4.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), NBR -3.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC), PTEN -3.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), AAPL -3.2% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman - Bloomberg), BRCM -3.1% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), BIG -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), MU -2.1% (downgraded to Market Perform at JMP).
Gapping Up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CPSL +5.6%, PLL +3.2%… M&A news: DSCP +5.0% (Getinge agrees to acquire co for $53 per share in cash)… Select airline stocks ticking higher with crude lower: LCC +5.9%, UAUA +5.2%, CAL +4.2%… Other news: LEH +14.3% (in talks to sell assets to Barclays - WSJ), MNKD +5.3% (reports positive data from a Ph. 3 clinical study of Technosphere Insulin in Type 1 diabetes; also the co and Pfizer announce collaboration for certain Exubera patients to transition to MannKind’s inhaled insulin therapy), ASML +3.3% (still checking), SJM +3.3% (announces declaration of one time special $5 Dividend), WFC +3.2% (confirms Q3 non-cash charge for Lehman Brothers structured notes, preferred securities), HRS +2.9% (will replace LEH in the S&P 500 after close on 9/19), PLXS +1.6% (awarded manufacturing contract with Kirby Lester)… Analyst comments: SAP +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse).
Disclaimer & How I use this list
Interested in the alerts below? You can get a 7 day free-trial of the full-blown, customizable Trade-Ideas Pro service. Note: These alerts refresh/update automatically every 30 secondsPost from: Trader Mike's Blog
Watchlist for September 16, 2008
No tag for this post.September 15, 2008 Recap: Still Not Oversold
One can just look at the NYSE Composite down 5.09% to know what kind of day this was — a great one to be a bear. The selling was widespread and intense. The only sector that I see up on the day was airlines and that was only up 0.12%. Financials obviously led the way down today with a 9.74% drop in the XLF. Energy wasn’t far behind with a 7.66% drop. But what really got my attention was the Russell 2000 finally getting hit. Over the last week or so I kept talking about how I thought we couldn’t truly bottom until all stocks got hit. It looks like we’re heading in that direction now. (BTW, it’s supposed to say “mucK” on the chart below, not “mucH”.)
Note that all of the indices are not giving oversold stochastic readings yet on my very short-term settings. I am seeing signs of the market becoming oversold on a longer time frame though. A couple of hours ago James asked me:
what do you think of the fact that a high percentage of S&P 500 stocks are still above their 50 day MA…? Was just looking at the chart on stockcharts
That SPXA50R James is referring to is very similar to the T2108 indicator that I like so much. Recently I’ve pointed out that it was still far from it’s oversold level of 20 thanks to the continued strength in certain sectors. Well today T2108 took a dive and closed at 21.48. So we’re basically at the point where you almost have to become a buyer or at the very least cover your shorts. And once again I’m worried for all the folks hitting this site from searches for “inverse ETFs”. It’s kinda late to just now be initiating shorts for anything other than very short-term trades.
The Nasdaq had a smaller percentage loss than the other indices. It continued its walk down the lower Bollinger Band (not shown) today while managing to hold above its 2008 lows.
The S&P 500 made a new 3-year low on very high volume thanks to all those financial stocks.
Speaking of financials, note that the premium to Friday’s close that BAC was paying for MER got wiped out by the end of the day. Something tells me that the market doesn’t like this deal.
Trend TableAll down once again.
Trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Russell 2000 Long-Term Down Down Down(-) Intermediate Down Down Down(-) Short-term Down Down(-) Down(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
Post from: Trader Mike's Blog
September 15, 2008 Recap: Still Not Oversold
No tag for this post.Watchlist for September 15, 2008
Over the past year or so Duru and I have been saying (writing) “we live in interesting times” to each other probably 10 times per week in response to economic or financial news. That phrase is certainly appropriate this morning. Besides all the LEH, MER and AIG drama we’ve also got oil tanking through $100 while the dollar’s also falling. I’m trying to get a read on where the indices will open. The key levels I’m watching are the July intraday lows as well as the intraday lows from last week. Don’t forget that the Fed decision looms tomorrow…
On Today’s Calendar:
- nothing
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: OTTR -4.9%… M&A news: TTWO -29.4% (ERTS terminates discussions with Take-Two), BAC -14.2% (Bank of America buys Merrill Lynch in a $50 bln all-stock transaction), BBY -3.3% (Best Buy to Acquire Napster for $2.65/share)… Select financial-related names showing weakness following LEH’s Ch 11 filing: LEH -91.5% (to file for protection under Ch. 11 - WSJ), AIG -37.6% (S&P puts AIG ratings on creditwatch negative; WSJ reports scrambles to raise cash, talks to Fed; also subsequently downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill and downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), WM -16.8%, UBS -16.7% (shares hit by speculation of new writedowns in Europe trading- Reuters.com), RBS -15.3%, PMI -13.5%, ABK -13.4%, BCS -13.4%, AXA -10.7%, SLM -10.3%, WB -10.0%, MS -9.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), PUK -8.9%, C -8.1%, GS -7.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill), IBN -7.6%, ING -7.4%, LYG -7.0%, JPM -6.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Merrill), STI -6.6%, WFC -5.4%, HBC -3.8%… Select solar names showing weakness as oil drops ~6 pts following passing of Ike: CSIQ -9.8%, ESLR -9.5%, SPWR -9.3%, JASO -8.4%, SOLF -8.2%, YGE -8.0%, TSL -7.8%, STP -6.9%, FSLR -6.8%… Other news: TSRA -24.5%, GE -7.4% (checking for anything specific)… Analyst comments: AGNC -8.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill), NLY -6.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill), LOW -5.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), BXP -5.0% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), HD -4.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), PHM -4.3% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup).
Gapping Up
With equity futures trading significantly lower this morning (S&P futures -43, Dow futures -353), very few stocks are trading higher in premarket… M&A news: NAPS +85.2% (Best Buy to Acquire Napster for $2.65/share), MER +35.5% (Bank of America buys MER in an all stock deal; MER holders to receive 0.8595 BAC shares), LDG +3.3% (WAG proposed to acquire all outstanding LDG shares for $75/share)… Other news: PSS +5.6% (announces that the Court has entered a judgment in the adidas trademark infringement case that reduces the monetary award against the co).
Disclaimer & How I use this list
Interested in the alerts below? You can get a 7 day free-trial of the full-blown, customizable Trade-Ideas Pro service. Note: These alerts refresh/update automatically every 30 secondsPost from: Trader Mike's Blog
Watchlist for September 15, 2008
No tag for this post.September 12, 2008 Stock Market Recap
For all the volatility & drama in the financial sector last week the indices didn’t move very far. For the week the S&P 500 was up 0.76% and the Nasdaq was up 0.24%. I’m sure the bears are quite frustrated that the market didn’t fall apart in the face of all of the bad news. Both of the aforementioned indices are working on potential double-bottoms and need to take out their August highs to confirm those patterns.
For what it’s worth, the charts of the indices are below. But I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the technicals this week. Not only do we have a Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on Tuesday but we also have Lehman news, Goldman earnings and options expiration coming up. It should be an action packed week.
Trend TableThe trend table still looks quite bearish
Trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Russell 2000 Long-Term Down Down Lat Intermediate Down Down Lat Short-term Down Lat(+) Down(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
Post from: Trader Mike's Blog
September 12, 2008 Stock Market Recap
No tag for this post.Watchlist for September 12, 2008
The price action was impressive yesterday but, as has been the case for months, the accompanying volume was lacking. Below is the Nasdaq chart, which made a bullish engulfing candle after finding support near the July low. It would be nice if the bulls could follow-trough on all the potential reversal candles made yesterday. But judging by the weak futures this morning that probably won’t happen.
On Today’s Calendar:
- 10:00 — Business Inventories
- 10:00 — Mich Sentiment-Prel.
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KNXA -19.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard and downgraded to Underweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), LULU -11.1%, ACTL -5.0%… Select mortgage/financial stocks trading lower: LEH -40.7% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs- DJ and downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), MER -15.0%, WM -13.4%, IRE -11.4%, RDN -11.1%, SNV -10.4%, SCA -8.8%, AIB -8.5% (downgraded to Sell at Dresdner Kleinwort), MTG -8.0%, ABK -7.6%, PMI -7.5%, MS -7.5%, AIG -7.4%, MBI -6.3%, RBS -6.2%, BAC -6.1% (ests cut at Credit Suisse and RBC lowering ests following recent disclosures), AXA -6.0% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), UBS -5.9%, BCS -5.9%, LYG -5.9%, WB -5.8%, ING -5.4%, GS -5.0%, DB -4.8%, C -4.3%, JPM -3.3%, WFC -3.0%, NMR -2.3% (leads Asian financials down after Lehman loss - Bloomberg.com)… Select metals/mining stocks trading lower with strength in dollar and lower spot prices: GOLD -4.0%, GFI -3.7%, BHP -2.7%, MT -2.2%, RTP -1.4%, HMY -1.3%, GLD -1.3%… Select solar names showing weakness: FSLR -7.0%, YGE -5.6%, LDK -5.2%, JASO -5.1%, TSL -4.9%, CSIQ -4.4%, ESLR -4.2%… Other news: CHL -5.1% (trading ex-dividend)… Analyst comments: PDLI -5.3% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), AEG -4.9% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), NVDA -4.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), AZN -3.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), RAI -1.8% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley).
Gapping Up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CPSL +7.8%… Select metals/mining names showing strength with metals prices moving higher as the dollar pulls back: PAAS +4.9%, RTP +4.8%, BHP +3.9%, BBL +3.5%, GG +3.4%, ABX +3.2% (Barrick Gold squelches Kinross rumor - Globe and Mail), HMY +2.9%, GFI +2.9%, RIO +2.7%, AUY +2.5%, FCX +2.1%, GLD +1.3%… Other news: FWLT +5.5% (announces a $750 mln share repurchase program), HUN +5.2% (discloses it accepted two backstop proposals), LDK +4.0% (signs 11-year agreement for processing of solar-grade silicon for Q-Cells, coupled with MOU for up to 5 GW in additional wafer supplies), POT +3.1% (announces increase to share repurchase program; the ceiling to ~10% of the public float or 31.5 mln shares), E +2.6% (still checking)… Analyst comments: BTU +3.3% (initiated with Buy at Jefferies), GILD +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), CNX +1.8% (initiated with Buy at Jefferies), RIG +1.7% (initiated with Buy at Citigroup), ACI +1.6% (initiated with Buy at Jefferies), NE +1.0% (initiated with Buy at Citigroup), SYT +1.0% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS).
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Watchlist for September 12, 2008
No tag for this post.Watchlist for September 11, 2008
Well here we go again with another gap down. Lehman is leading the way by trading down another 42% in the premarket. Here’s a little something on LEH that Briefing.com (via the WSJ) just posted:
Lehman Brothers’ biggest problem — its high exposure to commercial real-estate holdings — hasn’t been solved - WSJ (7.25 ) -Update-
WSJ reports the co’s biggest problem — its high exposure to commercial real-estate holdings — hasn’t been solved. Investors would have cheered Lehman’s restructuring plans, announced Wednesday, if the bank had reported a sharp drop in its commercial real-estate holdings. But the decline was a modest $7.2 billion, leaving $32.6 billion on its balance sheet at the close of its fiscal third quarter ended Aug. 31. The commercial real-estate holdings unnerve investors because they dominate Lehman’s balance sheet. They still are 1.7 times as big as the bank’s common equity of $19.5 billion. In addition, there is uncertainty about the value Lehman has placed on these assets. That uncertainty could intensify in light of what Lehman intends to do with its commercial real estate. The firm plans to spin off these assets into a separate company owned by Lehman shareholders in its fiscal first quarter of 2009. Notably, the new entity won’t use market values for the assets it holds.
That last line really gets me! These guys are just clowns.
Anyway, here are the index charts. I’m still watching the names that are off of their 2008 lows for shorts — the likes of IWM, XLF, IAI and maybe even RTH…
On Today’s Calendar:
- nothing
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KNXA -19.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard and downgraded to Underweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), LULU -11.1%, ACTL -5.0%… Select mortgage/financial stocks trading lower: LEH -40.7% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs- DJ and downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), MER -15.0%, WM -13.4%, IRE -11.4%, RDN -11.1%, SNV -10.4%, SCA -8.8%, AIB -8.5% (downgraded to Sell at Dresdner Kleinwort), MTG -8.0%, ABK -7.6%, PMI -7.5%, MS -7.5%, AIG -7.4%, MBI -6.3%, RBS -6.2%, BAC -6.1% (ests cut at Credit Suisse and RBC lowering ests following recent disclosures), AXA -6.0% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), UBS -5.9%, BCS -5.9%, LYG -5.9%, WB -5.8%, ING -5.4%, GS -5.0%, DB -4.8%, C -4.3%, JPM -3.3%, WFC -3.0%, NMR -2.3% (leads Asian financials down after Lehman loss - Bloomberg.com)… Select metals/mining stocks trading lower with strength in dollar and lower spot prices: GOLD -4.0%, GFI -3.7%, BHP -2.7%, MT -2.2%, RTP -1.4%, HMY -1.3%, GLD -1.3%… Select solar names showing weakness: FSLR -7.0%, YGE -5.6%, LDK -5.2%, JASO -5.1%, TSL -4.9%, CSIQ -4.4%, ESLR -4.2%… Other news: CHL -5.1% (trading ex-dividend)… Analyst comments: PDLI -5.3% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), AEG -4.9% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), NVDA -4.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), AZN -3.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), RAI -1.8% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley).
Gapping Up
With equity futures trading significantly lower this morning (S&P futures -18, Dow futures -130), very few stocks are trading higher in premarket… In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CSX + 4.8%, GCOM + 3.7%
Disclaimer & How I use this list
Interested in the alerts below? You can get a 7 day free-trial of the full-blown, customizable Trade-Ideas Pro service. Note: These alerts refresh/update automatically every 30 secondsPost from: Trader Mike's Blog
Watchlist for September 11, 2008
No tag for this post.Watchlist for September 10, 2008
We’ve already had a pretty wild session today. The futures have been all over the place in sympathy with LEH. They were up ahead of their pre-announcement of earnings, then tanked on the news and have now rebounded again. Fun times.Let’s see if we get a fade of the fade of the fade once the market opens…
On Today’s Calendar:
- 10:35 AM — Crude Inventories
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HOFT -8.6%, PAY -7.4%… Select airlines ticking lower with crude higher: DAL -8.9%, AAI -5.1%, LCC -4.3%, UAUA -1.9%… Other news: GFIG -23.0% (announces termination of talks with Tullett Prebon; also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), XEL -2.9% (announces that it has priced 15 mln shares at $20.86), HUM -1.5% (discloses that it will lose 308k members because its pricing for medical drug benefits are above benchmarks), TSN -1.3% (prices 20 mln shares of common stock at $12.75/share)… Analyst comments: CPHD -3.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Piper), DRIV -1.5% (downgraded to Market Weight at Weisel).
Gapping Up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AVAV +7.3%, HIMX +7.3%, TXN +4.4%, FDX +3.0%… M&A news: IRF +6.1% (Vishay Intertechnology increases all-cash proposal for International Rectifier to $23.00/share in cash from $21.22/share)… Select oil/gas names showing modest strength with crude higher: STO +3.3%, HES +2.5%, TOT +1.0%… Select foreign financials showing strength: MTU +6.0%, AXA +3.5%, UBS +3.3%, DB +1.8%, ING +1.3%, BCS +1.2%,… Other news: SNY +5.6% (continued strength on report Glaxo’s Viehbacher to replace Le Fur), STM +5.0% (up in sympathy with TXN), CRM +4.6% (will replace FRE in the S&P 500 after the close on 9/12), UPS +3.6% (up in sympathy with FDX), FAST +3.2% (will replace FNM in the S&P 500 after the close on 9/12)… Analyst comments: AEO +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), NSC +1.8% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), BJRI +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Wedbush), HWAY +1.1% (raised to Neutral from Sell by Goldman Sachs - DJ).
Disclaimer & How I use this list
Interested in the alerts below? You can get a 7 day free-trial of the full-blown, customizable Trade-Ideas Pro service. Note: These alerts refresh/update automatically every 30 secondsPost from: Trader Mike's Blog
Watchlist for September 10, 2008
No tag for this post.